2016 Oscar Predictions

The 88th Academy Awards take place Sunday, February 28^th. Included below are my predictions for all 24 categories.

Best Picture 

‘The Big Short’

‘Bridge of Spies’

‘Brooklyn’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Martian’

‘The Revenant’

‘Room’

‘Spotlight’

Will win: ‘The Revenant’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Director


Lenny Abrahamson, ‘Room’

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, ‘The Revenant’

Tom McCarthy, ‘Spotlight’

Adam McKay, ‘The Big Short’

George Miller, ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

Will win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, ‘The Revenant’

Should win: George Miller, ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Actor


Bryan Cranston, ‘Trumbo’

Matt Damon, ‘The Martian’

Leonardo DiCaprio, ‘The Revenant’

Michael Fassbender, ‘Steve Jobs’

Eddie Redmayne, ‘The Danish Girl’

Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, ‘The Revenant’

Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio, ‘The Revenant’

 

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, ‘Carol’

Brie Larson, ‘Room’

Jennifer Lawrence, ‘Joy’

Charlotte Rampling, ‘45 Years’

Saoirse Ronan, ‘Brooklyn’

Will win: Brie Larson, ‘Room’

Should win: Brie Larson, ‘Room’

 

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, ‘The Big Short’

Tom Hardy, ‘The Revenant’

Mark Ruffalo, ‘Spotlight’

Mark Rylance, ‘Bridge of Spies’

Sylvester Stallone, ‘Creed’

Will win: Sylvester Stallone, ‘Creed’

Should win: Sylvester Stallone, ‘Creed’

 

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh, ‘The Hateful Eight’

Rooney Mara, ‘Carol’

Rachel McAdams, ‘Spotlight’

Alicia Vikander, ‘The Danish Girl’

Kate Winslet, ‘Steve Jobs’

Will win: Alicia Vikander, ‘The Danish Girl’

Should win: Rooney Mara, ‘Carol’

 

Best Foreign Language Film


‘Embrace of the Serpent’

‘Mustang’

‘Son of Saul’

‘Theeb’

‘A War’

Will win: ‘Son of Saul’

Should win: ‘Mustang’

 

Best Documentary Feature


‘Amy’

‘Cartel Land’

‘The Look of Silence’

‘What Happened, Miss Simone?’

‘Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom’

Will win: ‘Amy’

Should win: ‘Amy’

 

Best Animated Feature


‘Anomalisa’

‘Boy and the World’

‘Inside Out’

‘Shaun the Sheep Movie’

‘When Marnie Was There’

Will win: ‘Inside Out’

Should win: ‘Anomalisa’

 

Best Original Screenplay

‘Bridge of Spies’

‘Ex Machina’

‘Inside Out’

‘Spotlight’

‘Straight Outta Compton’

Will win: ‘Spotlight’

Should win: ‘Spotlight’

 

Best Adapted Screenplay


‘The Big Short’

‘Brooklyn’

‘Carol’

‘The Martian’

‘Room’

Will win: ‘The Big Short’

Should win: ‘Carol’

 

Best Cinematography


‘Carol’

‘The Hateful Eight’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Revenant’

‘Sicario’

Will win: ‘The Revenant’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling


‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared’

‘The Revenant’

Will win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Original Score

‘Bridge of Spies’

‘Carol’

‘The Hateful Eight’

‘Sicario’

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

Will win: ‘The Hateful Eight’

Should win: ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

 

Best Film Editing

‘The Big Short’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Revenant’

‘Spotlight’

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

Will win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Production Design

‘Bridge of Spies’

‘The Danish Girl’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Martian’

‘The Revenant’

Will win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Sound Editing

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Martian’

‘The Revenant’

‘Sicario’

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

Will win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Sound Mixing

‘Bridge of Spies’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Martian’

‘The Revenant’

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

Will win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Visual Effects

‘Ex Machina’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Martian’

‘The Revenant’

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

Will win: ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Costume Design


‘Carol’

‘Cinderella’

‘The Danish Girl’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Revenant’

Will win: ‘Cinderella’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Original Song

Earned It (The Weeknd), ‘Fifty Shades of Grey’

Manta Ray (J. Ralph), ‘Racing Extinction’

Simple Song #3 (David Lang), ‘Youth’

Til It Happens To You (Lady Gaga), ‘The Hunting Ground’

Writing’s On The Wall (Sam Smith), ‘Spectre’

Will win: Til It Happens To You (Lady Gaga), ‘The Hunting Ground’

Should win: Til It Happens To You (Lady Gaga), ‘The Hunting Ground’

 

Best Live Action Short


‘Ave Maria’

‘Day One’

‘Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)’

‘Shok’

‘Stutterer’

Will win: ‘Ave Maria’

Should win: ‘Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)’

 

Best Animated Short


‘Bear Story’

‘Prologue’

‘Sanjay’s Super Team’

‘We Can’t Live without Cosmos’

‘World of Tomorrow’

Will win: ‘Sanjay’s Super Team’

Should win: ‘World of Tomorrow’

 

Best Documentary Short


‘Body Team 12’

‘Chau, beyond the Lines’

‘Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah’

‘A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness’

‘Last Day of Freedom’

Will win: ‘Body Team 12’

Should win: I plead the fifth!!

 

When I saw ‘Spotlight’ at TIFF15 in September, I was certain that it was the frontrunner for Best Picture. It probably was until just recently. This small-scale film now faces stiff competition against ‘The Revenant’, the $135 million art film that has grossed $365 million worldwide and is still going strong in its ninth week of release. It won the top award at the DGA, which is a strong indicator. In recent years, the Best Picture winner has taken home 3-5 Oscars; this year, I predict there will only be two movies that will accomplish this: ‘The Revenant’, and ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’.

Yes, Alejandro G. Iñárritu won the Best Director and Best Picture Oscar just last year for ‘Birdman’. He is going to pull it off again this year with ‘The Revenant’. If ‘The Revenant’ wins Best Picture, it will be the first time in Oscar history that a director has won for the second time in a row. If Iñárritu takes Best Director, he joins two others (John Ford for ‘The Grapes of Wrath’, and ‘How Green Was My Valley’, and Joe Mankiewicz for ‘A Letter to Three Wives’, and ‘All About Eve’). I don’t think Academy voters are checking up on their Oscar history (even as recent as last year) when submitting their ballots, so Iñárritu’s recent win isn’t going to work against him.

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ was my (easy) choice for the best film of 2015, so I would love to see it win Best Picture, and would love to see George Miller win Best Director for actualizing the demolition derby of his wildest dreams. The probability of this occurring is very low. ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ will, however, dominate the technical categories and I anticipate it will win more awards than any of the films it is competing against (5 Oscars for ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ – but it deserves 4 more, and 4 for ‘The Revenant’).

There are only two sure bets this year: Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor for ‘The Revenant’, and the Best Animated Film Oscar will go to ‘Inside Out’. The Best Actress Oscar will go to either Brie Larson (‘Room’), or Saoirse Ronan (‘Brooklyn’) – if I were an Academy voter, I’d pick Larson. The Best Supporting Actor category is difficult to predict. Everyone loves a good comeback story – Sylvester Stallone, a Razzie favorite, winning an Oscar for reprising his role as Rocky Balboa, the character he created back in 1976, sounds like a good one. But, the fact that he wasn’t nominated for a SAG means that Mark Rylance could snag this one. The Best Supporting Actress category is equally confounding. My guess is it is between Oscar-veteran Kate Winslet, and first-timer Alicia Vikander (I wish Vikander got the nomination for ‘Ex Machina’ rather than ‘The Danish Girl’). The Best Foreign Language Oscar will likely go to the Grand Prix winner at last year’s Cannes Film Festival, ‘Son of Saul’ (good as the movie was, I’d like to see ‘Mustang’ win this one). The Best Documentary Oscar will go to ‘Amy’ – it was the best of the bunch, and the most widely viewed of the nominees. QED.

 

Hail, Caesar!

Grade: A-

If you weren’t sold on the trailer of the new Coen Brothers movie, ‘Hail, Casear!’, let me just say that the movie is about five other movies (within this movie) that aren’t necessarily great movies. 

The year is 1951, and Hollywood studio executive Eddie Mannix (Josh Brolin) must contend with juggling lots of movies and stars, and the headaches that accompany both, as well as the abduction of one of his leading men, Baird Whitlock (George Clooney) by some communists. 

The real-life Eddie Mannix did not run a studio but he was a behind-the-scenes fixer at MGM (here, he runs Capitol Studios – the capitalist machine, get it?). While ‘Hail, Caesar!’ is an uproarious comedy that goes down like matinee popcorn, there is more going on here than there might seem (as usual with the Coen Brothers). It doesn’t have the serious weight of, um, ‘A Serious Man’, or ‘No Country For Old Men’, but it is still about something. 

In the theatrical trailer, we see George Clooney forget one key word in his line. “Faith”. And that, to me, is what this picture is mainly about. It’s about our faith in believing the stories that Hollywood tells us – not just the stories within the movies, but the lies that studios tell us about the stars.  There is also the faith that the stars have in the studios and those who run it. The faith communists placed in their nonsensical economic ideology. The faith Baird has in abductors – they sell “it” to him, whatever “it” is, and Baird is a movie star who wants to be liked by everyone so he is easily manipulated. It is about Eddie’s faith in the business he is in and he is left having to make a choice between work that is easy and work that is rewarding. It’s about religious faith – the movie is bookended with scenes of Eddie, a devout Roman Catholic, in a confessional booth (he appears to go to confession daily with the most insignificant of things to confess – “I smoked two, maybe three cigarettes behind my wife’s back”). And, of course, the prestige picture ‘Hail, Caesar!’ within the movie – the sort of religious spectacle studios used to churn out in that era (a classic Coen Brothers scene involves Eddie convening a Greek Orthodox priest, a Protestant Minister, a Catholic Priest, and a rabbi to discuss whether the depiction of Christ in the movie will offend any reasonable person with religious beliefs).   

My favorite of all cinematographers, the great Roger Deakins, and a team of highly proficient art directors riff on Old Hollywood form and style by creating the studio of our dreams, painstakingly recreating actual movie moments (Scarlett Johansson is unmistakably channeling an aquatic Esther Williams, and Channing Tatum’s tap-dancing brings to mind Gene Kelly), and in making this movie look like something from that era. If you digitally composite Gene Kelly over Channing Tatum, or Esther Williams over Scarlett Johansson, I think you’ll barely notice a difference. Deakins even makes the typically murky and confined space of a confessional booth visually appealing by having the light streak through the slats. 

All the cast members here are clearly having a blast.  Tilda Swinton is fantastic playing twin gossip columnists Thora Thacker and Thessaly Thacker – this has to be a callback to Hedda Hopper and Louella Parsons. The real discovery here is Alden Ehrenreich in a star-making performance whose Hobie Doyle is the Roy Rogers counterpart. Hobie is the singing cowboy figure forced into becoming a “serious” actor for his first dramatic-starring role. I’m completely unaware of any real-life corollaries between Roy Rogers and Hobie Doyle, but Hobie is one of the most memorable characters the Coens have ever created. The film’s funniest moment involves Ralph Fiennes’ Laurence Laurentz (the George Cukor conduit) directing Hobie in a period drama; needless to say, the oratory lesson does not go well.  Oh, and there’s Jonah Hill as the fall guy lawyer Joseph Silverman – he is the guy who meets the minimum requirements of personhood; if a movie star kills someone, they need not worry because Joseph will step in and accept responsibility. I’d love to see a feature-length film focusing on any of these wacko screwball side characters. If there’s a drawback to the ‘Hail, Caesar!’, it is that there is an overabundance of outstanding characters, none of whom we get to spend sufficient time with. 

The pace never stops. Until it does. ‘Hail, Caesar!’, like many of Coen’s other films, ends abruptly. Some viewers may find the ending unfulfilling. We get a day in a life glimpse of Old Hollywood. But, we already know that this is coming to an end: it won’t be long before stars begin to run their own production companies, and the studios relinquish ownership of theaters, and every American home has a television. There wasn’t a smooth transition or metamorphosis. It just ended.  

Where does ‘Hail, Caesar!’ rank in the Coen Brothers canon? I don’t think it’s an instant classic the way ‘Fargo’, ‘No Country For Old Men’, or ‘Inside Llewyn Davis’ is. But, like ‘The Big Lebowski’, it could become something of a cult classic – a picture that was misunderstood upon initial release, but widely embraced as a masterwork years later. Based on what I saw in ‘Hail, Caesar!’, I can’t tell if the Coen Brothers hate the movies or love the movies. Or if they love the movies but hate the studio system. One of the reasons I love the movies is because every year (or two or three years), I get to see a Coen Brothers movie. QED.

2016 Oscar Nominated Live Action Shorts

Grade: B+

#OscarSoWhite? I dunno. There doesn’t seem to be much of a diversity problem for the five nominated short films in the live-action category. The nominators have selected short films from all around the globe. It would be nice to live in a world where that wasn’t worth a mention, but it is.

The first of the bunch is a 14-minute short from Palestine called ‘Ave Maria’. An Israeli man runs his car into a Virgin Mary statue in front of the West Bank convent, where five Palestinian nuns have sworn a vow of silence for the Sabbath. The possibility of communication between the parties involved is futile. This slight little comedy won me over with its charm and hopefulness – there was something rewarding about watching people with different beliefs work together to solve a problem, geopolitics be damned. Director Basil Khalil’s farce of religious extremism will likely be the winner of the Best Live Action Short Oscar. It’s the sort of picture that Academy voters tend to respond to – it is light-hearted fare, but that one that exceeds the “too slight” threshold.

The second film is Jamie Donoughue’s ‘Shok’, a coproduction of Kosovo and the United Kingdom. This 21-minute coming-of-age film about the friendship between two Albanian boys and their encounters with Serbian troops during the Kosovo war in 1998 features solid performances and a worthy subject matter. And yet, I would say this is the weakest link – the only one of the five shorts in which my attention wandered a little. The story builds to an uninspired climactic conflict and the production appears distractingly glossy for such a rough story. This is the one short that may have benefited from a feature length treatment, but even in its current state, it does have its share of unnerving moments.

The middle picture is Germany’s ‘Everything Will Be Okay’. The longest entry, at 30 minutes, is emotionally loaded and unquestionably my favorite of the five live-action shorts. A divorced father (Simon Schwarz) takes his eight-year-old daughter (Julia Pointner) out on what, at first, seems like one of their regularly scheduled weekends together but eventually reveals itself to be something that will forever change their relationship. I had no idea where this story was going – the narrative twists and complications are expertly handled. Though the story is told through the eyes of a young girl, it assumes a degree of perceptivity from its audience. Director Patrick Vollrath draws terrific performances from his two leads, and imbues the proceedings with a sense of immediacy, which makes this domestic drama unfold like a highly charged thriller.

We are then treated to the well-acted and absolutely delightful ‘Stutterer’. This 13-minute short from England follows a man with an unrelenting speech impediment (Matthew Needham, wonderful) having to find the courage to meet a woman in person whom he has had an online relationship with for months. The prospect of their first in-person meet is terrifying and writer/director Benjamin Cleary, operating within the narrow confines of short-form narrative, takes us deep into the mind of someone who has to deal with the daily struggles of having the words in front of him, but finding it nearly impossible to voice them. This is the lightest, and airiest of the group.

The only American-produced short from this year’s nominees is Henry Hughes’ gripping ‘Day One’, which packs an astounding amount in its 25-minute runtime. On her first day on the job in Afghanistan, an Afghan-American interpreter (Layla Alizada) with no medical training finds herself pressured to deliver a baby from the wife of a terrorist. Alizada’s performance is excellent, and here, as in ‘Ave Maria’, the religious customs and language barriers complicate the procedure. The film is based on a true story and there is an authenticity to it that probably stems from the director having spent four years in Afghanistan.

I’m not sure how the sequence of the shorts was determined, but as presented, ‘Stutterer’ leaves you with a smile on your face before ‘Day One’ swings you back into depression. I would reverse these two so that viewers could leave the theater feeling optimistic. I saw the 2016 Oscar Nominated Live Shorts in a fairly packed auditorium at TIFF Bell Lightbox on a Saturday afternoon. You now have the opportunity to see the year’s best shorts in a single sitting on a big screen – you absolutely should take advantage of it. QED.